Sunday, July 23, 2017

A Theory for Everything

They say if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But then they also say if you aren’t moving forward, then you are moving backward.
If all good things come to those who wait, what do they mean by time and tide waiting for none?
If birds of a feather flock together, how is it that opposites attract?
If out of sight means out of mind, how does absence make the heart grow fonder?
If action speaks louder than words, how, if I may ask, is pen mightier than the sword?
Is more, really the merrier or do too many cooks spoil the broth?

Proverbs are these time-tested nuggets of theories passed down through generations. Turns out there is one to suit every occasion - to justify everything and anything. Is it surprising, at all then, that proverbial wisdom contradicts itself so much?

And what do they normally say when these theories don’t work?
· The Context argument: The situational dispositions are to blame. This is the classic asterisk of “T & C apply”. The problem is, situational factors are often way too many and mostly unknown, so what good are the rules anyway?
·  The Exception argument*: Exceptions only prove the rule. WHAT? HOW?
· The Moderation argument*: Don’t go to extremes while adopting rules but maintain a balance -- like those boon-or-bane essays in high-school that always used to end by recommending "middle-ground" and "thoughtfulness".

Here's the thing: man’s unrelenting search for meaning and explanation has meant survival, sophistication and splendid, splendid progress. However, some argue we have taken it a bit too far, with all our excessive self-assurance. The not-so-intelligent application of abstract reasoning, whether inductive (establishing generic rules from specific observations) or deductive (exploiting general theories to get to specific conclusions) has led to us being "narrow-minded slaves of logic".

The problem is that we often try to attach a sense of universality and timelessness to the conventionally acquired wisdom. Karl Popper, a prominent philosopher, relied on falsifiability of theories – he propounded that all theories have a permanent sense of uncertainty and should be considered only "tentatively" true. Any number of positive evidences do not make the theory permanently true whereas a single negative evidence is decisive and implies that a new theory is needed for explanation of the phenomenon. This is a paradigm shift; more like turning traditional idea about knowledge on its head - (this might be a poor example, but) imagine a legal system that never completely acquits the defendant and names the person only tentatively innocent for all his life.

Are we doomed then? Are we to understand it’s all always going to be ambiguous? Is Popper suggesting we can't completely anticipate/explain things and so must resign our quest of knowledge to this meaninglessness? 

Quite the opposite, actually. 

There's a fine line between skepticism and gullibility and that's ideally where you want to be. I guess what he is saying is -
It’s less about knowing, and more about learning.
Less about believing, more about seeking.
Less about reaching, more about exploring.
Less about the destination, more about the journey.

PS:
*Nassim Nicholas  Taleb's (henceforth referred to as NNT) “The Black Swan” is the most influential non-fiction book I have ever read. As opposed to conventional wisdom that recommends ignoring exceptions, removing outliers and fitting “normal” “models”, NNT stresses the importance of studying rare events and fat-tailed distributions for a broader and deeper long-term understanding. (Actually, this whole area of complex systems, chaos and nonlinear dynamics seems very very relevant across all domains and theories). NNT, in fact, advocates dealing in extremes for achieving optimal results. (Truth be told, Mathematics throws me off a little bit lately, what I understand is that the best thing for me is to alternate between Quattro Formaggi Burst and fasting ;)). Anyway, it's only fitting that people either completely adore or loathe his school of thought. :)

2 comments:

  1. Very interesting and thought provoking !
    I especially liked the last part where you summerized it all,
    "It’s less about knowing, and more about learning.
    Less about believing, more about seeking.
    Less about reaching, more about exploring.
    Less about the destination, more about the journey."

    Just one clarification. Which conventional wisdom recommends ignoring exceptions ?

    Thanks for the post.
    best,
    Vishal

    ReplyDelete
  2. Just one clarification. Which conventional wisdom recommends ignoring exceptions ?
    >>
    Read the book! :P

    ReplyDelete